Monday, August 25, 2008

Update: Construction Job Security Continues Recovery


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

8/26/2008


Construction Job Security Index Continues Arduous Recovery
After Seven Month Decline of 93%, Construction sees Four Months of Growth

The Scorelogix® Construction Job Security Index™, a predictor of job security in a key sector of the economy, rose to 74.6 in July, marking a 19.7% increase, and the fourth increase in as many months. This comes as a welcome development following the catastrophic decline of the JSI in the preceding seven months, dating to November 2007. The initial decline coincided directly with growing turmoil in the credit markets, and increasing foreclosures in housing. As the full scope of the issue comes into focus, a steadily increasing Construction JSI is a promising indicator that these markets have weathered the storm, and that American jobs in the Construction Industry have become much more secure.



The increase in job security in Construction has occurred across all nine of the US census regions. The West South Central region recorded the largest increase of 21.6 percent in job security compared to the regional average increase of 19.8 percent.


The strongest individual States for Construction job security include South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, and Nebraska. Michigan is by far the weakest State for Construction job security, with Mississippi, Rhode Island, Alaska, and California all struggling in this regard as well.


Since March 2008, the Construction JSI has experienced a meteoric 850% rise. This is heavily tempered by the fact that, at that time, the JSI had fallen to a dismal score of 7.8, after a seven month pounding that saw it drop from a high score of 128.2. Currently, at 74.6, the Construction JSI lags well behind the National JSI, and is still a long way from recovering to its July 2007 number. Even so, job security in Construction is much stronger today than in the preceding months, and is an indicator that builders and contractors are regaining a sense of confidence, and that the market may eventually move beyond the current turmoil.


Top 10 States: JSI

1

South Dakota

109.0

2

Wyoming

106.3

3

Utah

102.2

4

Nebraska

101.9

5

Idaho

101.4

6

North Dakota

100.8

7

Iowa

96.0

8

Oklahoma

95.7

9

New Hampshire

93.9

10

Hawaii

93.6

Bottom 10 States: JSI

1

Michigan

37.7

2

Mississippi

51.3

3

Rhode Island

52.2

4

Alaska

56.0

5

California

58.1

6

Illinois

59.6

7

District Of Columbia

61.3

8

Ohio

63.1

9

Tennessee

63.4

10

Kentucky

63.5



To obtain further information about Scorelogix’s Job Security Index, or to receive a more in depth analysis of the data provided above, email Bill Dougherty @

bill.dougherty@scorelogix.com

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Friday, August 22, 2008

Scorelogix Update: Manufacturing JSI Declines 2.7% in July 2008


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

8/22/2008

Manufacturing Job Security Struggles Continue in July

7.2% Decline Since April 2008 Signals



The Scorelogix® Job Security Index™ for the Manufacturing sector fell by 2.7 percent in July, marking the third month in a row that Manufacturing job security has decreased. Since July 2007, the Manufacturing Job Security Index™ has fallen ten times, and has experienced an 18.7 % decline. Many factors contribute to this decline. It is attributable to the weakness in the housing market, and the subsequent cessation of new home building. It is affected by rising fuel costs and high inflation, which increase operating costs and squeeze employers into taking broad cost cutting measures. Additionally, the continuing failure of American car manufacturers to compete in the global market has created a dearth in the demand for auto related manufacturing goods. All of this, and the generally weak US economy, fosters an atmosphere where job insecurity in Manufacturing is rising.



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The decline in job security in Manufacturing has occurred across all nine of the US census regions. The regions which experienced the largest drop were the East North Central and Pacific regions. The West South Central and Mountain regions recorded the smallest decrease in Manufacturing job security at 1.7 percent.

The strongest individual States for Manufacturing job security include South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, and Nebraska. Michigan is by far the weakest State for Manufacturing job security, with Mississippi, Rhode Island, Alaska, and California all struggling in this regard as well.



Top 10 States: JSI


1 South Dakota 193.6
2 Wyoming 188.8
3 Utah 181.5
4 Nebraska 180.9
5 Idaho 180.1
6 North Dakota 178.9
7 Iowa 170.4
8 Oklahoma 169.9
9 New Hampshire 166.7
10 Hawaii 166.1


Bottom 10 States: JSI


1 Michigan 66.9
2 Mississippi 91.1
3 Rhode Island 92.6
4 Alaska 99.4
5 California 103.2
6 Illinois 105.9
7 District Of Columbia 108.9
8 Ohio 112.0
9 Tennessee 112.5
10 Kentucky 112.8


The downward trend in Manufacturing job security continues. Still, it manages, at 132.4, to hover slightly above the National Job Security Score, which in July rated 124.0. This overall greater strength in the Manufacturing industry, comparative to the rest of the country, can be attributed to the fact that a weak dollar promotes increased manufacturing exports. Also, domestically, Manufacturing remains a key component to the success of many other sectors, and in many ways, continues to serve as the foundation upon which other industries are built.


To obtain further information about Scorelogix’s Job Security Index, or to receive a more in depth analysis of the data provided above, please visit www.scorelogix.com or email Bill Dougherty @

bill.dougherty@scorelogix.com


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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Retail and Wholesale Job Security Index Plummets


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

8/14/2008

Retail and Wholesale Job Security Index Plummets

Three Month Decline Capped by 9.9% Drop in July


The Scorelogix® Retail and Wholesale Job Security Index™ fell by 9.9 percent in July, marking the third month in a row that Retail and Wholesale job security has decreased. In the last thirteen months, the Retail and Wholesale Job Security Index™ has fallen eight times. This decline can be attributed to significant decrease in consumer disposable income, rising inflation, credit crisis and a weakening economy.



The decline in job security in Retail and Wholesale has occurred across all nine of the US census regions. The regions which experienced the largest drop were the East North Central and Pacific regions. The West South Central region recorded the smallest decrease in Retail and Wholesale job security at 8.4 percent.


The strongest individual States for Retail and Wholesale job security include South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, and Nebraska. Michigan is by far the weakest State for Retail and Wholesale job security, with Mississippi, Rhode Island, Alaska, and California all struggling in this regard as well.


Since April 2008, the Retail and Wholesale JSI has suffered an incredible 18.4% drop, signifying a continued lack of consumer confidence and resources. This is by far the largest decline over a three month period in the past year, and the July drop of 9.9% is the biggest single month decline in that time period as well. A crucial component to the reversal of these trends will be a stabilized economy and credit market, as these are intricately connected to individuals’ ability to spend money in Retail and Wholesale.


To obtain further information about Scorelogix’s Job Security Index, or to receive a more in depth analysis of the data provided above, please visit www.scorelogix.com or email Bill Dougherty @ bill.dougherty@scorelogix.com

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Scorelogix Featured on WHYY Television

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

8/14/2008


PBS Affiliate Highlights Importance of Job Security Score


On June17, 2008, Scorelogix, the experts in measuring job security, were featured in a business profile on WHYY TV’s Delaware Tonight. The presentation focused on the importance of understanding how secure one’s job is, and the benefits that can be derived from receiving a Job Security Score (JSS) from Scorelogix.


Scorelogix CEO Suresh Annappindi, MBA., and Director of Business Development, David Watral, Ph.D. explained their views on the current employment landscape and how the JSS may be used by any individual making significant job and financial decisions.


Additionally, independent employment expert, University of Delaware Professor Ed Ratledge, noted the need for such services.


As unemployment rises, hours are cut, and wages are frozen throughout the country, it is more important than ever that individuals be equipped to understand as much about their future employment outlook as possible. To that end, Scorelogix offers the JSS free of charge on their website (www.scorelogix.com), while offering a comprehensive assessment of one’s personal results for $19.95.


The entire WHYY profile is available from the News and Events section of the Scorelogix website at http://www.scorelogix.com/bs_press_release.asp.



Scorelogix: Construction Jobs Outlook Offers Bright Spot Amid Dreary Economic Forecast



Construction JSI Offers Hope that Housing Crisis is Stabilizing

When the housing bubble burst in the Autumn of 2007, the effects were widespread, and continue to be felt, across a broad swath of industry. For obvious reason, the most affected were finance and construction.

Layoffs in construction began immediately. After years of unhinged growth, with suburban housing developments popping up, and huge new shopping centers following right behind, the construction the need for construction workers seemed insatiable. When housing crashed, new home building dried up quickly, leaving a huge number of construction workers with little job security, or completely out of work.



Blame for the foreclosures that brought about the crash in construction employment and housing prices can be laid at the feet of two groups: buyers and lenders. Buyers jumped at loans that were simply too far out of their price range, intoxicated on the idea that housing prices would rise, ad infinitum, and their debts would become windfalls.


This brazen attitude was stoked by an out-of-control lending industry, which saw the exponential growth in housing as an opportunity to turn a quick dollar. And turn them they did, securing outlandish loans for customers, who at times were not even required to prove their income. Lenders seemed immune to any negative outcomes and the immunity seemed to quickly spread to buyers. With visible end to the rise in house prices loans were quickly bundled and sold off to third party investors, the massive failure of bad loans has resulted in bank failures and economic belt tightening not seen since the 1980’s Savings and Loan debacle.



As the United States economy moves forward, attempting to recover from this unbridled lending spree, it is going to take the financial industry a good deal of time to recover. Job Security in these sectors therefore continues to drop. Despite a slight jump in JSI between May and June 2008, the general outlook for the financial sector remains grim.


In a sea of negative financial forecasts and reports, one positive measurement is the JSI for Construction. As shown in the first chart, above, the drop in Construction JSI was swift and striking, dropping over 100 points in just six months.


But job security in the construction industry may be improving. Construction JSI over the past four months is cause for some optimism. The JSI for construction, a measure of likely improvement in the construction industry over the next 8 to 12 months, has regained ground and may be picking up momentum. The biggest limit to this projected improvement is likely mirrored in the JSI for the Financial and Insurance industries. While dropping much less precipitously than JSI for construction, Finance and Insurance job security is predicted to continue in a significant decline. Layoffs and closings are likely to continue, according to JSI projections as banks struggle to maintain solvency

Still, when comparing the two charts, as shown below, construction job security took a much larger hit than job security in Finance and Insurance. But as the construction workforce begins to grow again it will have to contend with a tighter and, in terms of number of jobs, smaller financial and insurance workforce.